Tuesday 27 August 2019

I have calculated probabilities


I have calculated probabilities · More Probabilities · The Bases of the Probabilities

And that's why I was absent from internet yesterday, spending up to late in the evening doing the calculations on paper, last of them (it has taken some weeks).*

Probabilities about what? About getting sum 666 for a nine letter sequence of letters purely English alphabet and purely upper case.

For any three block letters in sequence, English alphabet only, the added values range from 195 to 270, from AAA to ZZZ.

AAA is only one possibility for 195, AAB, ABA and BAA are three for 196, and the values continue rising as triangle numbers up to triangle number 26, 351. From then on, you add two less than previous time each time, up to 507 coming in 232 after 505 in 231. Now, How do you add two less than 2 to 507? You add nothing, so, 233 is also 507, then it turns down, mirroring the ascent in the descent.

Now, for each value of first three, I checked what values in second and third thirds would add up to 666.

239, with second third at 195, third third must be 232. The values sink for one and rise for other to complete reversal, but I only calculate probabilities (multiplying those for second with those of third) up to middle, like:

239 (465) ... 239 (465)
195 1 ... 213 190
232 507 ... 214 210
[leaving out](507) ... [leaving out](39900)


Since the second half will mirror the first one. I add possibilities like (507) and (39900) up, then multiply by 2*(465).

If the number of combinations is uneven, which is always the case when first triplet has even value, since at mid point there must be equal value for second and third, I calculate the midpoint separately before multplying it with only 1*(probability value of first triplet's value), and then do as normally for the rest.

For 269 I checked and double checked the multiplications, till I had twice got a value of:
5 429 503 678 976.

For final sum of possibilities with value of 666 among these, I had:
37 231 320 152.

Now 5 429 503 678 976 : 37 231 320 152 =
145.831 618 562 264 082 5.

Oops, my bad, I thought (must have miscalculated sth) that the result was 1/143, when it is 1/146 or very little less frequent.

However, this is not valid for all names. For Jim Huss, to take an example, he vlogs on youtube, so he's known, there are only seven letters, which are too few to get the number we are asking about. 7*90 = 630, and you can't get higher values for seven English alphabet blockletters than seven Z. In others, the known name is too big. Cham-ber-lain, to use a historic example, for instance, has 11 letters (4+3+4). Now, 11*65 = 715, and you can't get lower with 11 upper case or any letters of English alphabet than 11 A. So, with anyone named Chamberlain, no use asking either. Of 8, 9 and 10 letters, 9 is by far easier than 10 (example with ten, writing Kebab as in Welsh with Cebab : CEBABCEBAB would so add up, and as you can see, all letters are very near beginning of alphabet), and with 8 upper case, as with 6 letters, first upper case and then five lower case, it's far easier to get 616 than 666). Similarily, though less markedly, getting 8 letters adding up to 666 without any lower case or space, is closer to end of alphabet.

So, to calculating how many upper case 9 letter combinations give 666, as compared to the rest, the severe reduction of combinations from both words overall and words relating clearly to a person, will leave the remaining probabilities somewhere around 1/146, but then the ones having 9 letters applied to them are only a subset, and so the overall probabilities are probably less likely than the number of world wide known figures. Meaning, any one there is, is overrepresenting this probability.

Hans Georg Lundahl**
Bibl. Parmentier, Paris
St. Joseph Calasanzo***
27.VIII.2019

* Any blog I am still updating, which isn't opus finitum in its own right, like a test on cultural history of Lithuania, or broken off very severely, like my haikus, or a precursor to this blog, I will not be updating every day, so some who saw this one may have thought I was updating another blog, it can otherwise be checked on this blog, where widgets link to what I update:

Latest on Antimodernism
https://l-o-antimodernism.blogspot.com/


Before I'm posting this one, widget in top field under title features these as last five posts on this blog:

Bonam Vigiliam et Bonum Festum Sancti Bartholomaei Apostoli
Would the harrassment have sth to do with Putin's visit?
About the dubia
De Dacie decapsulatoribus
Le passé comme repoussoir

Update, now it features:

I have calculated probabilities
Bonam Vigiliam et Bonum Festum Sancti Bartholomaei Apostoli
Would the harrassment have sth to do with Putin's visit?
About the dubia
De Dacie decapsulatoribus

Same for other widgets, lower down on the blog. Do some scrolling, if you want to keep up with me.

** The name as a whole is more than 9 letters, but HANSGEORG is nine, giving 670, HGLUNDAHL is 9, giving 663.

*** Sancti Josephi Calasanctii, Presbyteri et Confessoris, qui Ordinis Clericorum Regularium Pauperum Matris Dei Scholarum Piarum exstitit Fundator, atque octavo Kalendas Septembris obdormivit in Domino.

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