Birthrates

Here are some of them:

The current birth rate for Nigeria in 2023 is 36.026 births per 1000 people, a 1.14% decline from 2022.		The birth rate for France in 2021 was 11.042 births per 1000 people, a 0.59% decline from 2020. The birth rate for France in 2020 was 11.107 births per 1000 ...
The current birth rate for Pakistan in 2023 is 26.042 births per 1000 people, a 1.87% decline from 2022. · The birth rate for Pakistan in 2022 was 26.538 births ...		The current birth rate for Germany in 2023 is 9.373 births per 1000 people, a 0.09% decline from 2022.
The current birth rate for Argentina in 2023 is 16.172 births per 1000 people, a 1.15% decline from 2022. · The birth rate for Argentina in 2022 was 16.360 ...		The current birth rate for Poland in 2023 is 9.154 births per 1000 people, a 1.55% decline from 2022. · The birth rate for Poland in 2022 was 9.298 births per ...
The current birth rate for Turkey in 2023 is 14.894 births per 1000 people, a 1.7% decline from 2022. · The birth rate for Turkey in 2022 was 15.151 births per ...		The current birth rate for Singapore in 2023 is 8.336 births per 1000 people, a 0.99% decline from 2022.
The current birth rate for Brazil in 2023 is 12.806 births per 1000 people, a 1.94% decline from 2022. · The birth rate for Brazil in 2022 was 13.059 births per ...		The current birth rate for Croatia in 2023 is 8.317 births per 1000 people, a 1.46% decline from 2022. · The birth rate for Croatia in 2022 was 8.440 births per ...
The current birth rate for U.S. in 2023 is 12.023 births per 1000 people, a 0.09% increase from 2022. The birth rate for U.S. in 2022 was 12.012 births per 1000 people, a 0.09% increase from 2021. The birth rate for U.S. in 2021 was 12.001 births per 1000 people, a 0.09% increase from 2020.		The current birth rate for Spain in 2023 is 7.889 births per 1000 people, a 1.56% decline from 2022. · The birth rate for Spain in 2022 was 8.014 births per 1000 ...
The birth rate for Russia in 2022 was 11.617 births per 1000 people, a 2.42% decline from 2021. The birth rate for Russia in 2021 was 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020. The birth rate for Russia in 2020 was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.

I came across the idea of higher birthrates, no growing population, therefore much higher child mortality in pre-modern times.

The historical studies of child mortality don’t provide a full picture of our ancestors' past. They are snapshots of some moments in the long history of our species. Could they mislead us to believe that mortality rates were higher than they actually were?

There is another piece of evidence to consider that suggests the mortality of children was in fact very high: birth rates were high, but population growth was close to zero.

If every couple has on average four children, the population size would double each generation. But while we know that couples had on average many more children than four, the population did not double with each generation.9 In fact population sizes barely changed at all.

https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past

This is argued by footnote 9, which says:

We discuss this in more detail here and also in the first footnote of this article. From 10,000 BCE to 1700 the world population grew by only 0.04% annually..

Well, here we are already skewing the time frame. Carbon dated "10 000 BC" is 2621 BC according to my table* from Flood to Babel:

2957 B. Chr.

0.012788 pmC/100, so dated as 38 957 B. Chr.

2621 B. Chr.

0.406138 pmC/100, so dated as 10 071 B. Chr.

2607 B. Chr.

0.428224 pmC/100, so dated as 9607 B. Chr.

Add to that, that since time spans were drawn out back in 2621 BC, like 14 years drawn out to 464 years, deaths that really were closer in time would appear less dense in time, giving the impression of a less densely populated "10 000 BCE" - though that works out the other way.

464 / 14 = carbon dated deaths 33 times as drawn out as in real life, back then.
(2023 + 10 000) / (2023 + 2621) = 2.589 times as drawn out in overall time, since then.

This means, the growth rate could actually have been even slower than thought.

But that is overall. Going to Europe, we can look at some statistics presented as "before 1790" ...

This table shows fertility rates in Europe before 1790. Back then one woman gave on average birth to 4.5 to 6.2 children. The population of a society does not increase when every woman is replaced on average by two children. As the tables presents fertility rates when the population in these countries did not yet grow rapidly we can infer that on average 2.5 to 4.2 children died per woman.

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#total-fertility-rate-around-the-world-over-the-last-two-centuries

And the source of these statistics is less reasoned in detail, just referenced, note 5,

All of this data is taken from Gregory Clark (2007) – A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press. Clark’s sources by country are: Belgium – Flinn, 1981 France – Flinn, 1981 and Weir 1984 Germany – Flinn, 1981 England – Flinn, 1981 Netherlands – De Vries, 1985, 665. Scandinavia – Flinn, 1981

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#note-5

I cannot even find the title of Flinn, 1981 ... wait, yes, I can:

M. W. Flinn, The European demographic system 1500–1820, Brighton, Harvester Press, 1981, 8vo, pp. xi, 175, £15.95.
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 16 August 2012
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/medical-history/article/m-w-flinn-the-european-demographic-system-15001820-brighton-harvester-press-1981-8vo-pp-xi-175-1595/34A7609E76CBDC52D72FDBD2D841D6F3

Now, the reason I quibble is, I get a very different result, both for percentage never married and for number of children per woman in fertile age (including zero usually for nuns and otherwise never married). Where so? Well European High Aristocracy of the Middle Ages.

Seven Generations Women, Age at First Marriage · Age at first marriage and at death - a few more

PPS - for fertility rate: 201 to 210 children on 80 to 82 women (the 55 + 25 to 27 nuns and otherwise unmarried, not dying young).

2.451 - 2.625 children per woman./HGL

Why are low fertility rates and birth rates a bad thing?Hear Ricky, here:**

Social Security 15:36 or pensions or other retirement plans are kind of a pyramid scheme now that kind of has a negative 15:42 connotation it's probably the most beloved pyramid scheme of all time but that's kind of what it is 15:46 the average Social Security payment in the US is $171 which means for a retired couple that's 15:53 $3,400 the average salary in the US is around 55,000 now 12.4 4% of your paycheck goes to 16:00 Social Security but you only pay half that your employer pays the other half that means that if 16:05 the average American is making $4,600 a month at 12% that's $574 per worker you would need nearly 16:14 six workers to pay for one retired couple or three workers to pay for a single retiree with a healthy 16:20 perent of more younger people than old that's doable and we've Managed IT for all this time 16:25 but what happens when we stop having babies and there are no longer people working to pay for that 16:30 this system would fundamentally collapse in fact the Social Security program is expected to run 16:35 short of cash in 2033 while a key trust fund for Medicare will run out of funds by 2031 assuming 16:43 no hardcore policy changes then a shrinking and aging population means fewer people will pay taxes 16:48 more people will be on long-term care there will be higher pressure on all nation's Health Care 16:52 Systems there'll be a reduction in the workforce in countries like the United States Germany and 16:56 China will have to rely on immigration to recover jobs to keep their economies aoat consequently 17:01 labor demand will go unmet and when that happens everything starts to fall apart however it's 17:06 more than likely that countries will make strong policy changes that will affect you and me some

While I agree, at least in the short run immigration is a palliative, I would say countries have a good interest in getting self sufficient in children.

Anyway, one thing that's sure is, he agrees that the prognosis of Ehrlich is by now falsified. People need to start making babies again. And governments trying to squeeze out more work of each will only be likely to aggravate the shortage in bed time (four feet style) and babies made.

Banning abortions, and making life easier for the people who are then likelier to form couples is a real path.

Hans Georg Lundahl
Paris
XVII Lord's Day After Pentecost
24.IX.2023

PS, unfortunately, he is himself in a sense disincentivising children, if he has his way, in making incentives to only higher incomes to have them. You have a couple with one and a half earnings of minimum wage — or worse, but that should not stop you from having children./HGL

* Table I-II in New Tables
http://creavsevolu.blogspot.com/2020/08/new-tables.html
** Quoting a transscript of:
The World Population Crisis NO ONE Sees Coming
Two Bit da Vinci, 9 Sept. 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk5KoWUwz6Q