Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty
As wikipedian articles are not reputed a quite certain source, as I have nevertheless often used several for statistic purposes (most often age of death for people attaining adulthood, very much less often child mortality and in between age of marriage), I have made what some would consider an error in research.
First, with errors in wikipedia, those in birth and death years are not the most probable ones, especially if taking into account several articles, united by threads others can not very clearly have foreseen. So, I have assigned, beforehand, for each article (on an average) 95 % probability of giving a correct lifespan, 2.5 % for giving too short and 2.5 % for giving too long a such.
I have therefore made a list of 243 combinations, which is 35. On each level, I have put a C, and an S, and an L (meaning correct, too short, too long, and involving a reference to a favourite author of mine, C. S. Lewis).
Then I needed to copy this list onto three different notepad documents.
On one, I kept all from CCCCC (all five correct), via SSSSS (all five too short) to LLLLL (all five too long).
On one, I deleted all C, made all S inti -1, made all L into +1. Then I proceeded to add together.
On the last one, I made all C into *0.95, and all S as well as all L into *0.025. In order to copy such a row onto the calculator, start with putting in a 1, since otherwise the first "*" will be read as "0*" in analogy of "+" being read as "0+". Here is a picture from that ongoing process:
It took time, and I often paused to do sth else, while saving the finished work in some document I could reaccess. Same observation for putting first the polarity (0 = no overall deviation, + 1 = one life too long unbalanced, - 1 = one life too short unbalanced and so on) and then the probability after each combination.
For the immediate result of that, see below. I'll do some more, be back in a while./HGL
| CCCCC | +0 | 0.7737809375 | ||
| CCCCS | -1 | 0.02036265625 | ||
| CCCCL | +1 | 0.02036265625 | ||
| CCCSC | -1 | 0.02036265625 | ||
| CCCSS | -2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCCSL | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCCLC | +1 | 0.02036265625 | ||
| CCCLS | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCCLL | +2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCSCC | -1 | 0.02036265625 | ||
| CCSCS | -2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCSCL | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCSSC | -2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCSSS | -3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CCSSL | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CCSLC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCSLS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CCSLL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CCLCC | +1 | 0.02036265625 | ||
| CCLCS | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCLCL | +2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCLSC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCLSS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CCLSL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CCLLC | +2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CCLLS | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CCLLL | +3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSCCC | -1 | 0.02036265625 | ||
| CSCCS | -2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CSCCL | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CSCSC | -2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CSCSS | -3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSCSL | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSCLC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CSCLS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSCLL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSSCC | -2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CSSCS | -3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSSCL | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSSSC | -3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSSSS | -4 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CSSSL | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CSSLC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSSLS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CSSLL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CSLCC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CSLCS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSLCL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSLSC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSLSS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CSLSL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CSLLC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CSLLS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CSLLL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CLCCC | +1 | 0.02036265625 | ||
| CLCCS | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CLCCL | +2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CLCSC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CLCSS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLCSL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLCLC | +2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CLCLS | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLCLL | +3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLSCC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CLSCS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLSCL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLSSC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLSSS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CLSSL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CLSLC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLSLS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CLSLL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CLLCC | +2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| CLLCS | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLLCL | +3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLLSC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLLSS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CLLSL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CLLLC | +3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| CLLLS | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| CLLLL | +4 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SCCCC | -1 | 0.02036265625 | ||
| SCCCS | -2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| SCCCL | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| SCCSC | -2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| SCCSS | -3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCCSL | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCCLC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| SCCLS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCCLL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCSCC | -2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| SCSCS | -3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCSCL | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCSSC | -3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCSSS | -4 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SCSSL | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SCSLC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCSLS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SCSLL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SCLCC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| SCLCS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCLCL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCLSC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCLSS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SCLSL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SCLLC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SCLLS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SCLLL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSCCC | -2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| SSCCS | -3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SSCCL | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SSCSC | -3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SSCSS | -4 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSCSL | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSCLC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SSCLS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSCLL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSSCC | -3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SSSCS | -4 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSSCL | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSSSC | -4 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSSSS | -5 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SSSSL | -3 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SSSLC | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSSLS | -3 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SSSLL | -1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SSLCC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SSLCS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSLCL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSLSC | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSLSS | -3 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SSLSL | -1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SSLLC | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SSLLS | -1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SSLLL | +1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SLCCC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| SLCCS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SLCCL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SLCSC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SLCSS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLCSL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLCLC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SLCLS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLCLL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLSCC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SLSCS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLSCL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLSSC | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLSSS | -3 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SLSSL | -1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SLSLC | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLSLS | -1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SLSLL | +1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SLLCC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| SLLCS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLLCL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLLSC | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLLSS | -1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SLLSL | +1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SLLLC | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| SLLLS | +1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| SLLLL | +3 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LCCCC | +1 | 0.02036265625 | ||
| LCCCS | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| LCCCL | +2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| LCCSC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| LCCSS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCCSL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCCLC | +2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| LCCLS | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCCLL | +3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCSCC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| LCSCS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCSCL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCSSC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCSSS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LCSSL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LCSLC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCSLS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LCSLL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LCLCC | +2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| LCLCS | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCLCL | +3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCLSC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCLSS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LCLSL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LCLLC | +3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LCLLS | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LCLLL | +4 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSCCC | +0 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| LSCCS | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LSCCL | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LSCSC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LSCSS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSCSL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSCLC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LSCLS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSCLL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSSCC | -1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LSSCS | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSSCL | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSSSC | -2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSSSS | -3 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LSSSL | -1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LSSLC | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSSLS | -1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LSSLL | +1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LSLCC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LSLCS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSLCL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSLSC | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSLSS | -1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LSLSL | +1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LSLLC | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LSLLS | +1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LSLLL | +3 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LLCCC | +2 | 0.000535859375 | ||
| LLCCS | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LLCCL | +3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LLCSC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LLCSS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLCSL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLCLC | +3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LLCLS | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLCLL | +4 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLSCC | +1 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LLSCS | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLSCL | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLSSC | +0 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLSSS | -1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LLSSL | +1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LLSLC | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLSLS | +1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LLSLL | +3 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LLLCC | +3 | 0.0000141015625 | ||
| LLLCS | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLLCL | +4 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLLSC | +2 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLLSS | +1 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LLLSL | +3 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LLLLC | +4 | 0.00000037109375 | ||
| LLLLS | +3 | 0.000000009765625 | ||
| LLLLL | +5 | 0.000000009765625 |
No comments:
Post a Comment