Showing posts with label de proportionibus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label de proportionibus. Show all posts

Monday, 25 March 2019

Is the Median Likely to be Correct?


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty · Is the Median Likely to be Correct?

Let's take fifteen items. The following are the likelihoods of overall all correct, one or two in deficit or excess:

overall correct
0.53250254490066198554120957851409
one lifespan in deficit
0.19457948503687863317008595913649
one lifespan in excess
0.19457948503687863317008595913649
two lifespans in deficit
0.03491280835932598368558101356028
two lifespans in excess
0.03491280835932598368558101356028


And the following are the likelihoods of each of minimum, lower quartile, median, higher quartile and maximum being correct:

minimum
= 0.92284623643389001647747623232692248
lower quartile
= 0.90567961833184941798449959605929867
median
= 0.92247223095350467350482677091964878
higher quartile
= 0.90567961833184941798449959605929867
maximum
= 0.92284623643389001647747623232692248


For each of these, I added together

all correct + with one lifespan in excess (calculated ratios) + with one lifespan in deficit (mirrored) + with two lifespans in excess (calculated ratios) + with two lifespans in deficit (mirrored)


As to all correct, needs no presentation.

As to one lifespan in excess or two lifespans in excess, calculated ratios, I'm coming to it. As to one or two lifespans in deficit, mirrored, this means the calculated ratios were placed other way round, median to median minimum and maximum swapped, quartiles swapped. I was too lazy to do an extra calculation for making one or two lifespans deficient in years.

For all correct, each of above got 1 full time the known 53.25 %. For deficient or exsessive 1, each ratio was multiplies with the likelihood of 1 in excess or deficit, 19.46 % in 15 items, as we know starting from assumption deficit and excess are equally likely at 2.5 % for each item, and correctness is 95 % probable. And similarily for the ratios related to two in excess or deficit, to the multiplication with 3.49 % likelihood.

Now, how did I calculate the ratios?

I decided an empiric method, starting with 15 theoretically possible lifespans. Chosen at semirandom.

The correct values for these are 30 at minimim, then 35, 35, then 40 and 42 around lower quartile, then 45, 50, then at median you have 52, then 55, 56, then around higher quartile you have 60 and 62, then 70, 71, last at maximum you have 73.

I used an order in which they didn't come in numeric order, but in a scrambled on, so I had to swap to order of magnitude each time, so as to avoid swapping from an order I was OK with, and possibly forgetting to swap. I then added together.

For faults, I used only excess, and then for deficit, I mirrored the values.

One fault starts with 60 (the first in "preliminary order") becoming 65 and ends with 45 becomong 50.

Two faults starts with 60 and 62 becoming 65 and 67 and then 60, 62, 30 becoming 65, 62, 35 and so on.

The ratios for getting correct values were - as I could count them - for one in excess 14/15 for minimum, 13/15 for each of lower quartile and median, 12/15 for each of higher quartile and maximum. I presumed the swaps would be roughly valid for one in deficit. And, for two in excess, same process of mirroring applies, the ratios were, and I did some counting mistakes, for minimum 92/105, for lower quartile 81/105, for median 80/106 (sic, my bad), for higher quartile 66 /105 and for maximum 64/104 (sic, my bad).

So, in getting correct median values, it is not just a matter of whether none or one or two values are off, but also how likely that is to be reflected in the median, which is less likely.

This means, when I made median values about series of wikipedian biographies, even with 95 % correctness per item, a correct median in 15 items is as likely as 92.25 %.

And while with 30 items (I might be back on that one tomorrow, today is a holiday) the likelihood for none or one excess or deficit sinks and for two excess or deficit rises, the median, quartiles and extremes make up less of the spectrum, so errors are less likely to be reflected.

For 15 items, you have unitary extremes and middle, at values number 1, 8 and 15, and binary quartiles at 4 and 5 around lower, at 11 and 12 around higher. This means 7 in 15 values are possible hits for errors in the overall views.

For 30 items, you have unitary extremes and quartiles, at values number 1, 8, 23 and 30, and a binary median with values 15 and 16 around it.

Now, 6 values in 30 are clearly fewer than 7 values in 15, so, the median, quartiles and extremes for 30 values should be even less likely to be wrong than for 15.

As I have already done several statistics from wikipedian lifespans, I can tell you a median of 52 is really on the lower side, for premodern times. On the other hand, this is in contexts with either ancestor bias or professional bias. You don't become ancestor of anyone if you die at 5, and you neither become king or painter if you die at 5. This means you have in both types of bias an exclusion of infant and child mortality. The medians are not what age you could expect to live to when you were born (and in fact you were hardly calculating life expectancy at that point, even if your parents were), it's more like what you could reasonably expect to live to if you already married and got children (in some cases a wife of 12 died at or just after giving birth, even so the medians are definitely above "45" as often cited) or if you already were active in a profession. In cases when I have instead calculated "children of" the overall lifespans, reflecting life expectancy at birth, are clearly somewhat lower, perhaps 45 or so.

Hans Georg Lundahl
Nanterre
Annuntiation of Our Lady
25.III.2019

Friday, 22 March 2019

From Fifteen to Thirty


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty · Is the Median Likely to be Correct?

From the table on From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way, I extract:

overall correct
0.53250254490066198554120957851409

one lifespan in deficit
0.19457948503687863317008595913649

one lifespan in excess
0.19457948503687863317008595913649

two lifespans in deficit
0.03491280835932598368558101356028

two lifespans in excess
0.03491280835932598368558101356028

three lifespans in deficit
0.00392996417819589468205813318492

three lifespans in excess
0.00392996417819589468205813318492


Would these add up adequately so as to not just be near hundred %, but also have square and cube near hundred %?

0.53250254490066198554120957851409
+ 0.19457948503687863317008595913649
+ 0.19457948503687863317008595913649
+ 0.03491280835932598368558101356028
+ 0.03491280835932598368558101356028
+ 0.00392996417819589468205813318492
+ 0.00392996417819589468205813318492
= 0.99934706004946300861665979027747

0.999347060049463008616659790277472 = 0.99869454642950502448207384608942
0.999347060049463008616659790277473 = 0.99804245886175778042684226880683

Adequate.

Now let's take "the squares" of this, and here the results are:

overall correct
0.36175000993206913621967397518099

one lifespan in deficit
0.22108918665111880425579369718934

one lifespan in excess
0.22108918665111880425579369718934

two lifespans in deficit
0.07657287541117073361934460202963

two lifespans in excess
0.07657287541117073361934460202963

three lifespans in deficit
0.017772064396013268186943237353

three lifespans in excess
0.017772064396013268186943237353

four lifespans in deficit
0.00274828499954849653206355718914

four lifespans in excess
0.00274828499954849653206355718914

five lifespans in deficit
2.7441217242473860320450499292338e-4

five lifespans in excess
2.7441217242473860320450499292338e-4

six lifespans in deficit
1.5444618441902933850336700187036e-5

six lifespans in excess
1.5444618441902933850336700187036e-5


So, for an initial assumption of 95 % chance of each wikipedian life having a correct lifespan, and 2.5 % for it deviating in either direction, for thirty of them, for the first time in these calculations, I get a chance of the "overall sum" being correct at less than 50 %, namely 36 %, but for the deviations one up or one down, 22 % each. Meaning, the chances for none or just one lifespan deviating in 30 add up to 80 %. If we find even 2 lifespans overall deviation acceptable in 30, we get a probability of 96 %, and if you could find three up or three down acceptable too, the certainty of acceptable result is over 99 %.

This means, I have not made a major blunder in taking wikipedian articles and the lifespans of known persons of the past in these.

Hans Georg Lundahl
Nanterre UL
St. Paul of Narbonne
22.III.2019

Tired as I was, I misdated 22.II instead of 22.III, this is now corrected, however, St Paul of Narbonne is from today's martyrology, not from back in february:

Narbone, in Gallia, natalis sancti Pauli Episcopi, Apostolorum discipuli, quem tradunt fuisse Sergium Paulum Proconsulem. Hic, a beato Apostolo Paulo baptizatus, et ab eo, cum in Hispaniam pergeret, apud Narbonem relictus, ibidem Episcopali dignitate donatus est; ibique, praedicationis officio non segniter expleto, clarus miraculis migravit in caelum.

Monday, 18 March 2019

From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty

Same method as previous, except left hand we get probabilities out of the larger list, -10 to +10, and right hand from smaller one, as previously, -5 to +5.

overall correct
0.53250254490066198554120957851409

one lifespan in deficit
0.19457948503687863317008595913649

one lifespan in excess
0.19457948503687863317008595913649

two lifespans in deficit
0.03491280835932598368558101356028

two lifespans in excess
0.03491280835932598368558101356028

three lifespans in deficit
0.00392996417819589468205813318492

three lifespans in excess
0.00392996417819589468205813318492

four lifespans in deficit
3.0792591352135758725926280021668e-4

four lifespans in excess
3.0792591352135758725926280021668e-4

[one in 3248]

five lifespans in deficit
1.7741564155219146064482629299164e-5

five lifespans in excess
1.7741564155219146064482629299164e-5

[one in 56 365]

six lifespans in deficit
7.7561234491884321905672550201417e-7

six lifespans in excess
7.7561234491884321905672550201417e-7

[one in 1 289 304]

seven lifespans in deficit
2.6183041395236668176949024200439e-8

seven lifespans in excess
2.6183041395236668176949024200439e-8

[one in 38 192 660]

eight lifespans in deficit
6.8791709289718419313430786132813e-10

eight lifespans in excess
6.8791709289718419313430786132813e-10

[one in 1 453 663 545]

nine lifespans in deficit
1.4063955047889612615108489990234e-11

nine lifespans in excess
1.4063955047889612615108489990234e-11

[one in 71 103 754 001]

ten lifespans in deficit
[supplied from following due to obvious error]

ten lifespans in excess
2.2188095608167350292205810546875e-13

[one in 4 506 921 268 321]

eleven lifespans in deficit
2.652576011605560779571533203125e-15

eleven lifespans in excess
2.652576011605560779571533203125e-15

[one in 376 992 024 215 252]

twelve lifespans in deficit
2.32595391571521759033203125e-17

twelve lifespans in excess
2.32595391571521759033203125e-17

[one in 42 993 113 201 578 875]

thirteen lifespans in deficit
1.41221098601818084716796875e-19

thirteen lifespans in excess
1.41221098601818084716796875e-19

[one in 7 081 094 892 340 158 934]

fourteen lifespans in deficit
5.3085386753082275390625e-22

fourteen lifespans in excess
5.3085386753082275390625e-22

[one in 1 883 757 585 964 912 280 702]

fifteen lifespans in deficit
9.31322574615478515625e-25

fifteen lifespans in excess
9.31322574615478515625e-25

[one in 1 073 741 824 000 000 000 000 000]


0.53250254490066198554120957851409
+ 0.19457948503687863317008595913649
+ 0.19457948503687863317008595913649
= 0.92166151497441925188138149678707

So, in fifteen wikipedian articles, with initial assumption (as the word is used) of 95 % chance of each being correct, 2.5 % of each having an excessive and 2.5 % of each having a decicient lifespan, the chances are for either no overall deficit or excess, or only one unbalanced lifespan in excess or deficit, 92.17 %.

The article was updated to change decimal commas to decimal points./HGL

From Five to Ten, the Long Way


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty

My method was this.

First I used a lot of <dt> with "overall correct" in the middle, and then ten to each side ranging from "one more" to "ten more" and from "one less" to "ten less".

Then I worked inward, inserting a lot of <dd> as follows : one under each ten, two under each nine, three under each eight and so on, into eleven under the "overall correct".

Then I worked in space, plus sign, space and new line after each <dd>.

Then I expanded " + " to " + () * ()".

Then I inserted (+5) in every space where I had planned to deal with the eventuality of all five lifespans in excess and so on.

Then I started to change the (0) to 0.7845092578125 which I had copied from the post Summary for Five Lifespans. And so on for the rest, which can here be seen in process.



I had to change the English decimal points to European decimal commas, you can on "eight more" see the three multiplications done, and on "six more" the five multiplications not yet done and on "seven more" the third multiplication is being done.



When all the multiplications were done, I got rid of the <dd> before remaining plus signs (I had deleted the plus sign before the first in each multiplication).

On "six more" you can see the five terms have already been added together and on "five more" the six terms are still separated, different ligns, plus signs.



When this was all done, I changed "more" to "lifespans in excess" and "less" to "lifespans in deficit". Voilà, here is the table, I just need to change back to decimal points again! Done./HGL

all ten lifespans in excess
0.000000000000000095367431640625

nine lifespans in excess
0.0000000000000362396240234375

eight lifespans in excess
0.00000000000619792938232421875

seven lifespans in excess
0.0000000006282863616943359375

six lifespans in excess
0.000000041808933734893798828125

five lifespans in excess
0.00000190862355194091796875

four lifespans in excess
0.000060551236301422119140625

three lifespans in excess
0.00131891675301361083984375

two lifespans in excess
0.01890052839397144317626953125

one lifespans in excess
0.161509563970111846923828125

overall correct
0.6364169771591907501220703125

one lifespans in deficit
0.161509563970111846923828125

two lifespans in deficit
0.01890052839397144317626953125

three lifespans in deficit
0.00131891675301361083984375

four lifespans in deficit
0.000060551236301422119140625

five lifespans in deficit
0.00000190862355194091796875

six lifespans in deficit
0.000000041808933734893798828125

seven lifespans in deficit
0.0000000006282863616943359375

eight lifespans in deficit
0.00000000000619792938232421875

nine lifespans in deficit
0.0000000000000362396240234375

all ten lifespans in deficit
0.000000000000000095367431640625

Sunday, 17 March 2019

From Five to Fifteen?


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty

As a general method - you recall what it was about, right, verifying that, if each wikipedian article has a 95 % likelihood of giving a correct lifespan, that after five, or fifteen, articles have been put together for a statistic, the overall statistic either has no excess or very marginal excess - one would multiply the likelihoods for first five articles having excess or deficit or neither with those of the next five. This would give 121 multiplications, for the following results of overall polarity:

  -5-4-3-2-10+1+2+3+4+5
 
+5 0+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10
+4 -10+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9
+3 -2-10+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8
+2 -3-2-10+1+2+3+4+5+6+7
+1 -4-3-2-10+1+2+3+4+5+6
0 -5-4-3-2-10+1+2+3+4+5
-1 -6-5-4-3-2-10+1+2+3+4
-2 -7-6-5-4-3-2-10+1+2+3
-3 -8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10+1+2
-4 -9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10+1
-5 -10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10


Then one would add up all polarities + 10 (only one), all +9 (two of them) and so on to + 1 (ten of them), 0 (eleven), -1 (again ten) and then decreasing to one multiplication for -10.

This process would no doubt take some time, so I am saving it for tomorrow (if I finish this today).

However, one can simplify this a bit, seeing that, from polarities + 2 or -2 on, the total probabilities within five are very small. One can stylise the 78.45 % to 80 % or 8 in 10, the 10.22 % each to 10 % or 1 in 10.

I here have a little confession to make about initial assumption of each article having 95 % likelihood of being correct in lifespan, and 2.5 % each direction of excess or deficit in lifespan. I was making a quick calculation on it and took 8+1+1 in ten as the values for each. Then I relented after seeing it was going low a bit too quickly.

One can of course give me credit for having chosen the 8 + 1 + 1 ratio simply for ease of calculation, so my higher evaluation of likelihood now reflects a compensation for my initial laziness too.

Now, I already did the multiplications for two and three "articles" (according to initial evaluation) or (according to this stylised version of newer evaluation) batches of five articles. I can tell you straight away, that while the likelihood of all 3 being correct or errors balancing in pairs is 560 in 1000, the likelihood of there being exactly one in excess or deficit is 195 each, meaning that the 0 or 1 article marginal error is taken together 950 in 1000. For two articles in excess or deficit, it is 24 each and for 3 articles in excess or deficit it is one each.

Now, suppose we take this 95 % relative correctness value as valid for 3 (my initial take) or for 15 (my take now, with approximation), if we multiply the results crosswise, we get a set of values valid for 6 or for 30 articles.

  560195+195-24++24--1+++1---
 
560 313600109200+109200-13440++13440--560+++560---
195+ 109200+38025++380254680+++4680-195++++195--
195- 109200-3802538025--4680+4680---195++195----
24++ 13440++4680+++4680+576++++57624+++++24-
24-- 13440--4680-4680---576576----24+24-----
1+++ 560+++195++++195++24+++++24+1++++++1
1--- 560---195--195----24-24-----11------


According to my additions, the neutral ones (no overall excess, no overall deficit) add up to 390804 in 1000000.

The one in excess, as do the one in deficit, add up to 227808 each, meaning, the 0 to one deficit is a clear majority:

390804 ppm
227808 ppm
227808 ppm
______________
846420 ppm

The plus or minus two are 64895 ppm each. The plus or minus three are 10480 ppm each. The plus or minus four are 966 ppm each. The plus or minus five are 48 ppm each and the plus or minus all six articles excess or deficit are 1 ppm each.

390804 + 227808 + 227808 + 64895 + 64895 + 10480 + 10480 + 966 + 966 + 48 + 48 + 1 + 1 = 999200

And I did some fault, since I am 800 ppm short.

Know what? It is Sunday, I'll publish it as is anyway, and make the correction later or tomorrow in an update.

Hans Georg Lundahl
Nanterre
II Sunday in Lent
also St Patrick
17.III.2019

Update, next day.

Neither excess nor deficit : 390 804 ppm
One either way : + 227 808 + 227 808 ppm
Two either way : + 65 295 + 65 295 ppm
Three either way : + 10 480 + 10 480 ppm
Four either way : + 966 + 966 ppm
Five either way : + 48 + 48 ppm
Six either way : + 1 + 1 ppm.

390 804 + 227 808 + 227 808 + 65 295 + 65 295 + 10 480 + 10 480 + 966 + 966 + 48 + 48 + 1 + 1 = 1 000 000

Saturday, 16 March 2019

The More Extreme Variations or Deviations


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty

I had no major trouble in extracting the following all at one go, after cherrypicking the fours and after deleting all previously done polarities./HGL

Three lifepans too short:
 
SLSSS -3 0.000000009765625
SSCCS -3 0.0000141015625
SSCSC -3 0.0000141015625
SSSCC -3 0.0000141015625
SSSSL -3 0.000000009765625
SSSLS -3 0.000000009765625
SSLSS -3 0.000000009765625
CCSSS -3 0.0000141015625
CSCSS -3 0.0000141015625
CSSCS -3 0.0000141015625
CSSSC -3 0.0000141015625
SCCSS -3 0.0000141015625
SCSCS -3 0.0000141015625
SCSSC -3 0.0000141015625
LSSSS -3 0.000000009765625
 
Three lifepans too long:
 
CCLLL +3 0.0000141015625
CLCLL +3 0.0000141015625
CLLCL +3 0.0000141015625
CLLLC +3 0.0000141015625
SLLLL +3 0.000000009765625
LCCLL +3 0.0000141015625
LCLLC +3 0.0000141015625
LCLCL +3 0.0000141015625
LSLLL +3 0.000000009765625
LLCCL +3 0.0000141015625
LLCLC +3 0.0000141015625
LLSLL +3 0.000000009765625
LLLCC +3 0.0000141015625
LLLSL +3 0.000000009765625
LLLLS +3 0.000000009765625
 
Four lifepans too short:
 
CSSSS -4 0.00000037109375
SCSSS -4 0.00000037109375
SSCSS -4 0.00000037109375
SSSSC -4 0.00000037109375
SSSCS -4 0.00000037109375
 
Four lifepans too long:
 
CLLLL +4 0.00000037109375
LCLLL +4 0.00000037109375
LLCLL +4 0.00000037109375
LLLCL +4 0.00000037109375
LLLLC +4 0.00000037109375
 
Five lifepans too short:
 
SSSSS -5 0.000000009765625
 
Five lifepans too long:
 
LLLLL +5 0.000000009765625


Update:

Corrected HTML to get the headings in the table correct./HGL

Update:

Sums:

0.000000009765625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 = 0.000141064453125

0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.000000009765625 = 0.000141064453125

0.000141064453125
0.000141064453125

0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 = 0.00000185546875

0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 = 0.00000185546875

0.00000185546875
0.00000185546875

And obviously, the last two items match without a need to do sums:

0.000000009765625
0.000000009765625

Update:

Corrected the French decimal comma to an English decimal point : this article is in English, but the online calculator is French./HGL

Two Lifespans Too Long in Five


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty

As previously:

CSLLL +2 0.00000037109375
CLCCL +2 0.000535859375
CLCLC +2 0.000535859375
CCCLL +2 0.000535859375
CCLCL +2 0.000535859375
CCLLC +2 0.000535859375
CLSLL +2 0.00000037109375
CLLCC +2 0.000535859375
CLLSL +2 0.00000037109375
CLLLS +2 0.00000037109375
LCCCL +2 0.000535859375
LCCLC +2 0.000535859375
SLLCL +2 0.00000037109375
SLLLC +2 0.00000037109375
SLCLL +2 0.00000037109375
SCLLL +2 0.00000037109375
LCSLL +2 0.00000037109375
LCLCC +2 0.000535859375
LCLSL +2 0.00000037109375
LCLLS +2 0.00000037109375
LSCLL +2 0.00000037109375
LSLCL +2 0.00000037109375
LSLLC +2 0.00000037109375
LLCCC +2 0.000535859375
LLCSL +2 0.00000037109375
LLCLS +2 0.00000037109375
LLSCL +2 0.00000037109375
LLSLC +2 0.00000037109375
LLLCS +2 0.00000037109375
LLLSC +2 0.00000037109375


Update, here is the sum:

0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 = 0.005366015625

Update:

Sums match, this and previous, as they should:
0.005366015625
0.005366015625

Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty

You know my method:

CCCSS -2 0.000535859375
CCSCS -2 0.000535859375
CCSSC -2 0.000535859375
CSCCS -2 0.000535859375
CSCSC -2 0.000535859375
CSSCC -2 0.000535859375
CSSSL -2 0.00000037109375
CSSLS -2 0.00000037109375
CSLSS -2 0.00000037109375
CLSSS -2 0.00000037109375
SCCCS -2 0.000535859375
SCCSC -2 0.000535859375
SCSCC -2 0.000535859375
SCSSL -2 0.00000037109375
SCSLS -2 0.00000037109375
SCLSS -2 0.00000037109375
SSCCC -2 0.000535859375
SSCSL -2 0.00000037109375
SSCLS -2 0.00000037109375
SSSCL -2 0.00000037109375
SSSLC -2 0.00000037109375
SSLCS -2 0.00000037109375
SSLSC -2 0.00000037109375
SLCSS -2 0.00000037109375
SLSCS -2 0.00000037109375
SLSSC -2 0.00000037109375
LCSSS -2 0.00000037109375
LSCSS -2 0.00000037109375
LSSCS -2 0.00000037109375
LSSSC -2 0.00000037109375


Update: here is the sum:

0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 = 0.005366015625

Method for Good Choice


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty

Before actually doing "two lifespans in five too short", I show how I pick these out.

I took the opportunity to cherry-pick the most extreme variations, 5 too short or 5 too long.

By broadly replacing each -1 and so on, all except -2 (and the ones I cherry-picked) with D E L E T E, I get a very sharp difference between those I need to delete and those I need to keep./HGL



Update:

I also carefully isolate the ones I need to keep from the ones I need to delete.

One Lifespan Too Long in Five


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty

In a sense, it is just a cosmetic version of the previous, mathematically, the chances are the same, it's just that the combinations look differently. However, it is also a checkup, so I have same number of items on each and same sum of probabilities on each./HGL

CCCCL +1 0.02036265625
CCCLC +1 0.02036265625
CCSLL +1 0.0000141015625
CCLCC +1 0.02036265625
CCLSL +1 0.0000141015625
CCLLS +1 0.0000141015625
CSCLL +1 0.0000141015625
CSLCL +1 0.0000141015625
CSLLC +1 0.0000141015625
CLCCC +1 0.02036265625
CLCSL +1 0.0000141015625
CLCLS +1 0.0000141015625
CLSCL +1 0.0000141015625
CLSLC +1 0.0000141015625
CLLCS +1 0.0000141015625
CLLSC +1 0.0000141015625
SCCLL +1 0.0000141015625
SCLCL +1 0.0000141015625
SCLLC +1 0.0000141015625
SSLLL +1 0.000000009765625
SLCCL +1 0.0000141015625
SLCLC +1 0.0000141015625
SLSLL +1 0.000000009765625
SLLCC +1 0.0000141015625
SLLSL +1 0.000000009765625
SLLLS +1 0.000000009765625
LCCCC +1 0.02036265625
LCCSL +1 0.0000141015625
LCCLS +1 0.0000141015625
LCSCL +1 0.0000141015625
LCSLC +1 0.0000141015625
LCLCS +1 0.0000141015625
LCLSC +1 0.0000141015625
LSCCL +1 0.0000141015625
LSCLC +1 0.0000141015625
LSSLL +1 0.000000009765625
LSLCC +1 0.0000141015625
LSLSL +1 0.000000009765625
LSLLS +1 0.000000009765625
LLCCS +1 0.0000141015625
LLCSC +1 0.0000141015625
LLSCC +1 0.0000141015625
LLSSL +1 0.000000009765625
LLSLS +1 0.000000009765625
LLLSS +1 0.000000009765625


Update:

0.02036265625 + 0.02036265625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.02036265625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.02036265625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.02036265625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.0000141015625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.000000009765625 + 0.000000009765625 = 0.10223642578125

Update:

This and previous do not match, as it stands:
0.10223642578125
0.10222232421875

Hypothesis, this one is correct, previous one, I missed one possibility./HGL

Update:

Hypothesis confirmed, the new sum total of probabilities matches the sum of this polarity:
0.10223642578125
0.10223642578125

Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty

For setup, see previous.

I will publish this one in two stages, and for second stage an update will include the sum of the chances./HGL

CCCCC +0 0.7737809375
CCCSL +0 0.000535859375
CCCLS +0 0.000535859375
CCSCL +0 0.000535859375
CCSLC +0 0.000535859375
CCLCS +0 0.000535859375
CCLSC +0 0.000535859375
CSCCL +0 0.000535859375
CSCLC +0 0.000535859375
CSSLL +0 0.00000037109375
CSLCC +0 0.000535859375
CSLSL +0 0.00000037109375
CSLLS +0 0.00000037109375
CLCCS +0 0.000535859375
CLCSC +0 0.000535859375
CLSCC +0 0.000535859375
CLSSL +0 0.00000037109375
CLSLS +0 0.00000037109375
CLLSS +0 0.00000037109375
SCCCL +0 0.000535859375
SCCLC +0 0.000535859375
SCSLL +0 0.00000037109375
SCLCC +0 0.000535859375
SCLSL +0 0.00000037109375
SCLLS +0 0.00000037109375
SSCLL +0 0.00000037109375
SSLCL +0 0.00000037109375
SSLLC +0 0.00000037109375
SLCCC +0 0.000535859375
SLCSL +0 0.00000037109375
SLCLS +0 0.00000037109375
SLSCL +0 0.00000037109375
SLSLC +0 0.00000037109375
SLLCS +0 0.00000037109375
SLLSC +0 0.00000037109375
LCCCS +0 0.000535859375
LCCSC +0 0.000535859375
LCSCC +0 0.000535859375
LCSSL +0 0.00000037109375
LCSLS +0 0.00000037109375
LCLSS +0 0.00000037109375
LSCCC +0 0.000535859375
LSCSL +0 0.00000037109375
LSCLS +0 0.00000037109375
LSSCL +0 0.00000037109375
LSSLC +0 0.00000037109375
LSLCS +0 0.00000037109375
LSLSC +0 0.00000037109375
LLCSS +0 0.00000037109375
LLSCS +0 0.00000037109375
LLSSC +0 0.00000037109375


Update:

0.7737809375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.000535859375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 + 0.00000037109375 = 0.7845092578125

Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ...


Statistic Chances for Correct Statistics from Insecure Items ... · Zero Polarity on Five Item Statistics · One Lifespan Too Short in Five · One Lifespan Too Long in Five · Method for Good Choice · Two LifeSpans Too Short in Five Items · Two Lifespans Too Long in Five · The More Extreme Variations or Deviations · Summary for Five Lifespans · From Five to Fifteen? · From Five to Ten, the Long Way · From Five and Ten to Fifteen, the Long Way · From Fifteen to Thirty

As wikipedian articles are not reputed a quite certain source, as I have nevertheless often used several for statistic purposes (most often age of death for people attaining adulthood, very much less often child mortality and in between age of marriage), I have made what some would consider an error in research.

First, with errors in wikipedia, those in birth and death years are not the most probable ones, especially if taking into account several articles, united by threads others can not very clearly have foreseen. So, I have assigned, beforehand, for each article (on an average) 95 % probability of giving a correct lifespan, 2.5 % for giving too short and 2.5 % for giving too long a such.

I have therefore made a list of 243 combinations, which is 35. On each level, I have put a C, and an S, and an L (meaning correct, too short, too long, and involving a reference to a favourite author of mine, C. S. Lewis).

Then I needed to copy this list onto three different notepad documents.

On one, I kept all from CCCCC (all five correct), via SSSSS (all five too short) to LLLLL (all five too long).

On one, I deleted all C, made all S inti -1, made all L into +1. Then I proceeded to add together.

On the last one, I made all C into *0.95, and all S as well as all L into *0.025. In order to copy such a row onto the calculator, start with putting in a 1, since otherwise the first "*" will be read as "0*" in analogy of "+" being read as "0+". Here is a picture from that ongoing process:



It took time, and I often paused to do sth else, while saving the finished work in some document I could reaccess. Same observation for putting first the polarity (0 = no overall deviation, + 1 = one life too long unbalanced, - 1 = one life too short unbalanced and so on) and then the probability after each combination.

For the immediate result of that, see below. I'll do some more, be back in a while./HGL

CCCCC +0 0.7737809375
CCCCS -1 0.02036265625
CCCCL +1 0.02036265625
CCCSC -1 0.02036265625
CCCSS -2 0.000535859375
CCCSL +0 0.000535859375
CCCLC +1 0.02036265625
CCCLS +0 0.000535859375
CCCLL +2 0.000535859375
CCSCC -1 0.02036265625
CCSCS -2 0.000535859375
CCSCL +0 0.000535859375
CCSSC -2 0.000535859375
CCSSS -3 0.0000141015625
CCSSL -1 0.0000141015625
CCSLC +0 0.000535859375
CCSLS -1 0.0000141015625
CCSLL +1 0.0000141015625
CCLCC +1 0.02036265625
CCLCS +0 0.000535859375
CCLCL +2 0.000535859375
CCLSC +0 0.000535859375
CCLSS -1 0.0000141015625
CCLSL +1 0.0000141015625
CCLLC +2 0.000535859375
CCLLS +1 0.0000141015625
CCLLL +3 0.0000141015625
CSCCC -1 0.02036265625
CSCCS -2 0.000535859375
CSCCL +0 0.000535859375
CSCSC -2 0.000535859375
CSCSS -3 0.0000141015625
CSCSL -1 0.0000141015625
CSCLC +0 0.000535859375
CSCLS -1 0.0000141015625
CSCLL +1 0.0000141015625
CSSCC -2 0.000535859375
CSSCS -3 0.0000141015625
CSSCL -1 0.0000141015625
CSSSC -3 0.0000141015625
CSSSS -4 0.00000037109375
CSSSL -2 0.00000037109375
CSSLC -1 0.0000141015625
CSSLS -2 0.00000037109375
CSSLL +0 0.00000037109375
CSLCC +0 0.000535859375
CSLCS -1 0.0000141015625
CSLCL +1 0.0000141015625
CSLSC -1 0.0000141015625
CSLSS -2 0.00000037109375
CSLSL +0 0.00000037109375
CSLLC +1 0.0000141015625
CSLLS +0 0.00000037109375
CSLLL +2 0.00000037109375
CLCCC +1 0.02036265625
CLCCS +0 0.000535859375
CLCCL +2 0.000535859375
CLCSC +0 0.000535859375
CLCSS -1 0.0000141015625
CLCSL +1 0.0000141015625
CLCLC +2 0.000535859375
CLCLS +1 0.0000141015625
CLCLL +3 0.0000141015625
CLSCC +0 0.000535859375
CLSCS -1 0.0000141015625
CLSCL +1 0.0000141015625
CLSSC -1 0.0000141015625
CLSSS -2 0.00000037109375
CLSSL +0 0.00000037109375
CLSLC +1 0.0000141015625
CLSLS +0 0.00000037109375
CLSLL +2 0.00000037109375
CLLCC +2 0.000535859375
CLLCS +1 0.0000141015625
CLLCL +3 0.0000141015625
CLLSC +1 0.0000141015625
CLLSS +0 0.00000037109375
CLLSL +2 0.00000037109375
CLLLC +3 0.0000141015625
CLLLS +2 0.00000037109375
CLLLL +4 0.00000037109375
SCCCC -1 0.02036265625
SCCCS -2 0.000535859375
SCCCL +0 0.000535859375
SCCSC -2 0.000535859375
SCCSS -3 0.0000141015625
SCCSL -1 0.0000141015625
SCCLC +0 0.000535859375
SCCLS -1 0.0000141015625
SCCLL +1 0.0000141015625
SCSCC -2 0.000535859375
SCSCS -3 0.0000141015625
SCSCL -1 0.0000141015625
SCSSC -3 0.0000141015625
SCSSS -4 0.00000037109375
SCSSL -2 0.00000037109375
SCSLC -1 0.0000141015625
SCSLS -2 0.00000037109375
SCSLL +0 0.00000037109375
SCLCC +0 0.000535859375
SCLCS -1 0.0000141015625
SCLCL +1 0.0000141015625
SCLSC -1 0.0000141015625
SCLSS -2 0.00000037109375
SCLSL +0 0.00000037109375
SCLLC +1 0.0000141015625
SCLLS +0 0.00000037109375
SCLLL +2 0.00000037109375
SSCCC -2 0.000535859375
SSCCS -3 0.0000141015625
SSCCL -1 0.0000141015625
SSCSC -3 0.0000141015625
SSCSS -4 0.00000037109375
SSCSL -2 0.00000037109375
SSCLC -1 0.0000141015625
SSCLS -2 0.00000037109375
SSCLL +0 0.00000037109375
SSSCC -3 0.0000141015625
SSSCS -4 0.00000037109375
SSSCL -2 0.00000037109375
SSSSC -4 0.00000037109375
SSSSS -5 0.000000009765625
SSSSL -3 0.000000009765625
SSSLC -2 0.00000037109375
SSSLS -3 0.000000009765625
SSSLL -1 0.000000009765625
SSLCC -1 0.0000141015625
SSLCS -2 0.00000037109375
SSLCL +0 0.00000037109375
SSLSC -2 0.00000037109375
SSLSS -3 0.000000009765625
SSLSL -1 0.000000009765625
SSLLC +0 0.00000037109375
SSLLS -1 0.000000009765625
SSLLL +1 0.000000009765625
SLCCC +0 0.000535859375
SLCCS -1 0.0000141015625
SLCCL +1 0.0000141015625
SLCSC -1 0.0000141015625
SLCSS -2 0.00000037109375
SLCSL +0 0.00000037109375
SLCLC +1 0.0000141015625
SLCLS +0 0.00000037109375
SLCLL +2 0.00000037109375
SLSCC -1 0.0000141015625
SLSCS -2 0.00000037109375
SLSCL +0 0.00000037109375
SLSSC -2 0.00000037109375
SLSSS -3 0.000000009765625
SLSSL -1 0.000000009765625
SLSLC +0 0.00000037109375
SLSLS -1 0.000000009765625
SLSLL +1 0.000000009765625
SLLCC +1 0.0000141015625
SLLCS +0 0.00000037109375
SLLCL +2 0.00000037109375
SLLSC +0 0.00000037109375
SLLSS -1 0.000000009765625
SLLSL +1 0.000000009765625
SLLLC +2 0.00000037109375
SLLLS +1 0.000000009765625
SLLLL +3 0.000000009765625
LCCCC +1 0.02036265625
LCCCS +0 0.000535859375
LCCCL +2 0.000535859375
LCCSC +0 0.000535859375
LCCSS -1 0.0000141015625
LCCSL +1 0.0000141015625
LCCLC +2 0.000535859375
LCCLS +1 0.0000141015625
LCCLL +3 0.0000141015625
LCSCC +0 0.000535859375
LCSCS -1 0.0000141015625
LCSCL +1 0.0000141015625
LCSSC -1 0.0000141015625
LCSSS -2 0.00000037109375
LCSSL +0 0.00000037109375
LCSLC +1 0.0000141015625
LCSLS +0 0.00000037109375
LCSLL +2 0.00000037109375
LCLCC +2 0.000535859375
LCLCS +1 0.0000141015625
LCLCL +3 0.0000141015625
LCLSC +1 0.0000141015625
LCLSS +0 0.00000037109375
LCLSL +2 0.00000037109375
LCLLC +3 0.0000141015625
LCLLS +2 0.00000037109375
LCLLL +4 0.00000037109375
LSCCC +0 0.000535859375
LSCCS -1 0.0000141015625
LSCCL +1 0.0000141015625
LSCSC -1 0.0000141015625
LSCSS -2 0.00000037109375
LSCSL +0 0.00000037109375
LSCLC +1 0.0000141015625
LSCLS +0 0.00000037109375
LSCLL +2 0.00000037109375
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Thursday, 16 January 2014

Phil Provaznik / Dalrymple on Potassium-Argon and on Principle, more on Fission Track and Isochrons (a debunking of...)

1) Newspeak in Nineteen - Eighty ... er Sorry ... Ninety-Four, 2) Mark Shea Recommended David Palm Who Misconstrues Bible Commission of 1909, 3) Would GKC have Agreed with MkSh that KH was a Bible Idolater?, 4) Correspondence of Hans-Georg Lundahl : With Jonathan Sarfati PhD on Fall and Inquisition, 5) New blog on the kid : Quarterlife is a Bad Term, 5b) Assorted retorts from yahoo boards and elsewhere : Answering Bill Nye, the Science Guy on a few points, 5c) New blog on the kid : Phil Provaznik/Dalrymple on Potassium-Argon and on Principle, more on Fission Track and Isochrons (a debunking of...), 6) [Back to Creation vs. Evolution :] Scenario impossible, 7) Karl Keating Out of His Depth?, 8) Three Kinds of Proposition, 9) Is Flat Earth Belief Heretical?, 10) HGL's F.B. writings : Between Palm and Sungenis, 11a) HGL's F.B. writings : On Helios in Christian Geocentrism, 11b) Assorted retorts from yahoo boards and elsewhere : ... on Rivers Clapping Hands, Anaximander, Greek Philosophy at time of Ecclesiasticus ... , 12) Assorted retorts : ... on Geocentrism with Raymond Doetjes and "Imdor"

Here are the basic formulas for calculating ages, from radioactive isotopes*:

Pt = P0e-dt
P0 = number of parent atoms at some starting time
Pt = number of parent atoms at some later time t
d = the decay constant (above)


This poses the question how we know P0 - even apart from the doubts about decay constant for very long halflives that I sketched out in "Qurterlife is a bad term".

However, the Evolutionists do have a proposed solution to this problem:

P0 = Pt + Dt IF Dt means daughter atoms formed.


What Phil Provaznik missed is that this has its doubt as well. What if Dt comes both from decay AND from initial amount D0?

However, this ignoring of this problem means he lands up with a less well-assured formula than the initial one, namely:

Pt = (Pt + Dt)e-dt


From there on he solves for t to get:

t = (1/d) loge ( Dt/Pt + 1 )


He claims this contains ONLY quantities that can be measured in the laboratory. Now, we have of course the decay constant d which can be very difficult to assess accurately in the laboratory for so long halflives. But apart from that he makes this admission which nullifies the "only" about quantities measurable:

If the rock incorporated some of the daughter isotope when it formed, then this initial amount of the daughter must be subtracted from the total amount measured.


Ah, and how do we know the initial amount of daughter element?

Dalrymple answers him:

However, for the principal methods, the value of the initial daughter is either zero, negligible or not required (Dalrymple, page 84-86).


OK, but how does he KNOW they are zero or negligible for some of the principal methods? And what does he mean by NOT REQUIRED for others of them?

Brings me to a certain point about Carbon-14. Is the daughter element nitrogen-14 or carbon-12? If it is carbon-12, this affects the measuring of carbon-14, since the carbon-14 is given as the amount per amount of carbon-12. On the other hand, if it is nitrogen, and since the carbon-14 was usually involved originally in certain chemical compounds, what happens to these compounds when carbon becomes nitrogen? I mean, for one thing they are different elements, for another thing they have different valencies. 4 for carbon, 3 for nitrogen.

But back to Phil Provaznik's text. He claims to refute a Catholic Creationist.

"In the first place, radiometric dating is based upon pure assumption and speculation. The scientist must assume he knows the ratio between potassium and argon that existed in the beginning. But, how can he know this?"


Phil answers:

This is a convenient dismissmal of the science of radiometric dating (no doubt picked up from some young-earth creationist literature). Radiometric dating is not "based upon pure assumption and speculation."


Sorry, Phil, but you just quoted Dalrymple as assuming the initial amounts of daughter element were zero or negligible. In potassium-argon method that is very much NOT something which is not required.

There are some assumptions involved, but they are eminently reasonable and scientifically justifiable.


The "some assumptions" being precisely what the Catholic Creationist enumerated, alone or among others: an assumption of knowing initial amounts of argon to potassium be zero or negligible.

but they are eminently reasonable and scientifically justifiable.


The creationist critique of them is also eminently reasonable and scientifically justifiable. Or maybe just even more so.

In my response to young-earther and geocentrist Robert Sungenis, I summarize Dalrymple's explanations of the scientific justifications for the assumptions involved, in particular (1) the constancy of decay rates,


Which is even known to be untrue in certain circumstances, like when exposed to radiation. Fission track dating involves counting fission tracks before and after speeding the decay rate of uranium up by exposing it to mica under heat.

(2) the initial daughter product (the "original ratio") is not required in any of the isochron or concordia-discordia calculations,


But it is required in ordinary Potassium-Argon dating without that isochron. Ah, Phil posted a denial of this?

This method is based on the decay of 40K to 40Ar and is probably the most commonly used radiometric dating technique available to geologists. It is the only decay scheme that can be used with little or no concern for the initial presence of the daughter isotope. This is because 40Ar is an inert gas that does not combine chemically with any other element and so escapes easily from rocks when they are heated.


Any Creationist Scientist criticising the method knows that argument. And anyone will give the refutation that argon gaz need not combine with other elements in order to get caught in the stone even while it is hot and molten. And he would add that we cannot know that all of the lava was really molten during the volcanic eruption.

Actually, Potassium-Argon has been tested and - as the Creationist critique would predict - found wanting. Citing Robert Doolan whom I already linked to earlier on the Creationist blog:**

The scientists who did the Rangitoto tests dated 16 volcanoes in all. Eleven of these were able to be compared with carbon-14 dates. In every case the potassium-argon dates were clearly wrong to a huge extent. Similar conflict was found by researchers in Hawaii. A lava flow which is known to have taken place in 1800-1801—less than 200 years ago—was dated by potassium-argon as being 2,960 million years old. If the real dates were not fairly well established by other means, who could have proved that the potassium-argon dates were so wrong? So how do you date a volcano? The lesson seems to be that how ever you date it, don’t count on the potassium-argon method.


The reference given is "J. G. Punkhouser and J.J. Naughton, ‘He and Ar in ultramafic inclusions’, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.73,1968, pp. 4601-4607."

Now to the answer of Phil to Bob argument three:

and especially (3) the thousands of radiometric dates published in the scientific literature year after year, using different radiometric dating methods, testing and confirming over and over again the data which all consistently converge on the same date: the earth was created 4.5 billion years ago.


Not true. If Leakey finds an age of 1 or 2 million years with fission track dating, this does not per se converge the age of earth into 4,500 times older than the one million or 2,250 times older than the 2 million years. VERY few of the rocks are supposed to be among the very "oldest" ones and only those are dated as 4.5 billion years old.

It seems Phil Provaznik has been as prejudiced against the Catholic Creationist (and Bob Sungenis) as he has been prejudiced for Dalrymple. The latter basically gets to wave a magic wand and Phil Provaznik stands in awe ...

As to the rocks in question, CMI claims these were meteorites which back then were presumed to be formed from earth itself.***

Now that is of course on the own admissions of Evolution believing scientists. If we get to Creationist accusations, the fine congruence of all dates in supposed to be due to discarding dates that do not fit. Kent Hovind cited Säve-Söderbergh and I. U. Olsson, two Swedes, as having openly admitted as much. Have not yet found reference, but the two persons do exist. He did not make them up. And actually, I think Gieam and Walker have very sound reasons for their complaints.

When we get to fission crack dating, which I mentioned twice earlier, see my comment on the following video (and do watch the video, if you like, it is from ufo-tv, but this does not mean everything said there is a lie):

video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3ZDmYCvSC0
my comment:
How high up the conspiracy to shut up a dig must come from ... there was a guy who would not believe Mexicans did it ...

Now, Latin Countries have often a freemasonry that is revolutionary and atheist and left wing. Mexico is no exception. To ALL lodges (or all I have heard of) backing Galileo against the Catholic Church is sacred, but to Grand Orient backing Darwin is sacred as well.

One direction noone looked at in this video. If a dating technique that gives 1 mill in Olduvai gives 500.000 in Hueyatlaco, BOTH dates may be too old, not only the very pre-Clovis date but also the Olduvai date. This, a kind of if not Young Earth Creationist strict implication at least Young Earth Creationism regaining possibility in face of Leakey implication may be exactly what the Mexican Masons would want to avoid. Precisely as the French ...

As anyone on the show knows, if the fission track dating was possibly usable in Olduvai, C14 was at least presumed not to be so. "Too old for carbon dating" ... how much HAS really been dated with fission track dating? Anything at all with strictly historical confirmation for dates and calibration possibilities?


Apart from that question, watch what they say about the method as such. Uranium divides into two atoms of lead which form a crack in obsidian. The cracks are counted. To find out how much uranium that could have formed cracks but has not done so yet, you expose the sample to mica and to heat. That provokes a fission of remaining uranium. Then you count how much uranium there was by counting how many cracks there are in total. Then you make the deduction of what proportion of uranium had undergone fission or decayed before the exposure hastened the process.

Wait one minute ... that means decay rate is regularly speeded up each time you use the method. And speeded up to very quick. Which is one reason I am interested in theories there might have been atomic wars before the flood.

And what about Isochrons?

I decided to investigate radiometric dating. A summary of my results may be found in Scientific Theology. Very briefly, for potassium-argon dates, the assumption that argon is driven off is demonstrably not valid, and one cannot be sure that the clock is reset. This point is underlined by multiple dates that are too old, even for the evolutionary timescale. There are also problems with "too young" dates, which are not adequately explained as the result of argon loss. These dates suggest that the evolutionary timescale is too long. There is a gradient of argon in the geologic column, with more argon in the older rocks and less in the younger rocks, regardless of their potassium content, including in minerals with no potassium content. This creates a sort of instant timescale—just add potassium.

There was also a problem with selectivity, which could be documented from the literature. Other dating methods had similar problems. Rubidium-strontium dating isochrons could be mimicked by mixing lines, which require essentially no time to form. There were multiple examples of inaccurate dates by anyone’s timescale, including ones that matched potassium-argon dates. Uranium-lead dating was also done by isochrons, and when incorrect dates were explained by discordia lines, these lines could also be reproduced by mixing lines. There were multiple examples of lower concordia ages which were not accurate by anyone’s timescale. There was the data set on uranium dates on pleiochroic haloes in coal, which seemed to indicate an age for the coal (conventional age around 100 million years) of less than 300,000 years. Uranium disequilibrium dating, fission-track dating and amino acid dating (which is not radiometric) all had their problems, as did other, less-established methods. Often the data were more easily explained on the basis of a short timescale rather than a long one.

Carbon-14 dating was the most fascinating method of all. Fossil carbon, with a conventional age of up to 350 million years, repeatedly dated to less than 55,000 radiocarbon years. This is compatible with a date of as low as 4,000 years in real time (the date of the Flood would have to be determined on other grounds). It is incompatible with an age of millions of years, or even realistically with an age of over 100,000 years or so. It basically forces one into accepting a short chronology for life on earth.


Paul Giem°, medical research, published, Scientific Theology, La Sierra University Press, Riverside, CA, 1996. Here is a bit about his credentials:

Dr. Giem is assistant professor of emergency medicine at Loma Linda University. He holds a B.A. in chemistry from Union College, Nebraska, an M.A. in religion from Loma Linda University and an M.D. from Loma Linda University. Dr. Giem has published research articles in the areas of religion and medicine. His current research includes work on carbon-14 dating methods. He is author of the book Scientific Theology, which deals with a number of science–Bible areas, including dating methodology and biblical chronology.


But apart from his credentials, can isochron lines really be mimicked by mixing lines? Tas Walker (Geologist, previously old-earth) cites Faure:°°

In his well-known textbook on isotope geology, Gunter Faure explains the various radioactive dating methods, including the so-called isochron method. When the results for a number of rock samples are plotted on a graph and form a straight line, the researcher can calculate an age for the samples. But Faure warns his readers not to accept the calculated age without question.

He gives an example of volcanic lava along the border of Uganda, Zaire and Rwanda, East Africa. That lava is known to be relatively young, possibly erupted within historical times,4 yet a rubidium-strontium straight-line isochron gave an age of 773 million years. Does this worry these scientists? No. They have total faith in the method. In their minds, the key is the way the results are interpreted. Faure says that in this case we should interpret the line, not as an isochron, but a “mixing line”. So how can we tell the difference? We can’t. The only way we can know it is a mixing line is if the calculated age is wrong—and the only way one can ‘know’ if an age is right or wrong is to have a pre-existing belief about what the age should be.


Faure, G., Principles of Isotope Geology, 2nd ed., John Wiley & Sons, New York, pp. 145–147, 1986.

In short, I think Creationists are more generous about giving references to accepted scientific material on the Evolutionists side than Phil Provaznik about giving references to them.

Hans-Georg Lundahl
Bpi, Georges Pompidou
Pope St Marcellus, Martyr
16-I-2014

Footnotes:

* Phil Provaznik : Evidence for Evolution and an Old Earth
http://www.philvaz.com/apologetics/p14.htm


** CMI : How do you date a New Zealand volcano?
by Robert Doolan
http://creation.com/how-do-you-date-a-new-zealand-volcano


*** CMIcreationstation : Dating the Earth - How old is it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hUhFVmte0Y


° CMI : In Six Days
Why 50 Scientists Choose
to Believe in Creation
Edited by Dr. John Ashton
First published in In Six Days
Paul Giem, medical research
http://creation.com/paul-giem-medical-research-in-six-days


°° CMI : Radioactive dating methods
Ways they make conflicting results tell the same story
by Tas Walker
http://creation.com/radioactive-dating-anomalies